Tomorrow is Opening Day and the 2025 Phillies season is kicking off, so now is a good time to set some expectations for the team. The Dodgers and Mets both had blockbuster offseasons, overshadowing the rest of the National League and keeping my outlook of the Phillies’ season cautious. I expect 88 wins from the Phillies, good enough to compete for the NL East, but likely to fall short of a World Series run. However, even those measured expectations hinge on a few things.
1. Better Bats from Stott & Bohm
The Phillies young infielders need to take the next step up.
Bohm, at 6-foot-5, should be hitting at least 25 homers a year. As of now, he’s only projected to hit 16, according to Fangraphs. If he finally taps into his raw power, it could change the lineup dynamic entirely.
Bryson Stott must rebound from the shoulder injury that tanked his 2024 season. Despite being an excellent fielder, his underlying offensive numbers were uninspiring. A .356 slugging percentage and 89 OPS+ are not enough to get it done. Both players need to rise to the occasion for the Phillies to make a run.
2. Andrew Painter & Cristopher Sanchez
Andrew Painter, MLB’s 8th ranked prospect, is expected to make his much-anticipated MLB debut this season after elbow surgery caused him to miss the last two seasons. At 6-foot-7 with a 100-mph fastball, Painter’s ceiling is astronomical. Painter will join a stacked rotation consisting of Wheeler, Nola, Sanchez, Ranger, and Luzardo. If he lives up to the hype, he’ll take the rotation from good to great.
Cristopher Sanchez was incredible last year, and I expect him to take another step this year. Projections love him, and at 28 years old he still has room for development. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him overtake Nola as the team’s second best pitcher.
3. Consistency from the Veterans
The Phillies core is on the wrong side of 30. Castellanos, Schwarber, and Bryce are all pushing 33, and Realmuto is going on 35. Whether they can fend off the inevitable decline that comes with age is uncertain, but I have my doubts.
Castellanos is a complete wildcard at this point, and while Schwarber has been outstanding, his power must remain consistent. Another 35 homer, 100 RBI season would be immensely beneficial. Harper has been a beacon of consistency, but after an off season of seeing what he eats his health has never been more in question.
I like the Phillies roster this year, and it’ll likely be an entertaining summer, but with the Mets going all-in and the Dodgers essentially breaking the sport, I am reluctant to say the Phillies will hoist the trophy this year.
Philly Plain Dealer 
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